So much has been said and written about the current goings on in Ottawa these past few days. If for some reason you haven’t been following it, or aren’t Canadian and just haven’t heard, the opposition parties, including the separatist Bloc party, have signed an accord to bring down the government and that they will form a new coalition to govern the country.
The timetable is that on Monday, they intend to hold a no confidence vote, which will defeat the government, since it is a minority government (meaning they do not hold a majority of voting seats in the house of commons), and once the government is defeated, they wish for the Governor General to install their coalition as the ruling party of Canada.
Now this is constantly being painted as a “crisis” and many Canadian people are up in arms stating that this isn’t what they voted for. The interesting thing is that, while maybe individually we didn’t vote for this, as a country we did. Our political system has had, for the 140 or so years that it’s existed, always contained the possibility for no confidence votes. It has always contained the possibility that a new coalition government could take power, and we, as Canadians, did, as a majority, vote to not have the Conservatives as our ruling party. I think this happens to have people in a panic because coalition governments just have not been a normal thing in Canada. I think I read somewhere that the last time it occurred was 97 or so years ago.
The simple fact is, this is all about political maneuvering. Canada, like most of the world, is facing an economic crisis. Everyone is well aware of this. What the political parties of Canada are also aware of, is the fact that whoever guides Canada successfully through this will most likely form the next government of Canada. This is pretty simple. People want stability, they want a government that will provide them with security. Whoever proves they can do this will easily get a majority government the next time we go to the polls. The parties all know this. And as they watch Stephen Harper, they realise that if they do not act, and he is successful at getting Canada through this, he will most likely win a majority next time, and the other parties will be powerless to stop his partisanship governing ways. They see this as their window of opportunity. And maybe, just possibly, some of them believe that they truly could do a better job of guiding Canada through this.
Much of this stems from the government’s recent economic statement. The Conservatives used this as a means of telling the other parties that they are going to reduce, or eliminate, the public funding of elections. While the Conservatives have enjoyed much wealth from private donations, it would effectively mean that some parties would not be able to mount a campaign. So many of Canadians see this move as a purely selfish measure by the other parties to secure their funding. However, what people fail to realise is that the economic statement also failed to do something that is fundamentally needed at this time, which is to address how the government intends to address the economic crisis. In this sense, the opposition parties are justified in stating that they have no confidence in the current government. How, as Canadians, can we? Our Prime Minister has attended several high level meetings of world governments to address the global economy, he told us that it would be necessary to take “drastic steps” in order to secure our own economy (many people interpreted this as to mean going into a deficit), so where was the plan when it came time to discuss the economy? Need I remind that this is the same party that didn’t bother to release a platform until after the debates, which was only a week or so before we went to vote! They seem to be resting all too much on their laurels.
Another sticking point here is that in order for the new coalition government to stand, it has to rely on the support of the Bloc Quebecois party, which is a party that stands primarily for the separation of the province of Quebec from the rest of Canada. They are a seperatist party that only runs in Quebec, and therefor in many people’s views, does not represent Canada as a whole. While this may be true, I might point out that we did go through a period where the Bloc was the official opposition party. Did we all burn in hell? Did the country fall apart? No, actualy, the Bloc was quite effective in the role. The simple fact is, it is quite interesting really to see the Bloc in this role. They are a seperatist party, that is now being forced to be at least somewhat, of a nationalist party. This, to me, provides an incredible opportunity. If the seperatist party can be shown to work hand in hand with two other nationalist parties, does this not bode well for Canada remaining as a whole? In a sense, this coalition government is more representative as Canada as a whole than almost any other single party has for many years. The simple question is, how long can it last?
I suppose the other issue is Stephan Dion. The man has been generally seen as an ineffective leader. In fact, he would only be Prime Minister until a new head of the Liberal party was elected in May. Then, if the coalition still stands, we would have a new Prime Minister, who has never been voted for. But this happened recently at the end of the Mulroney years. He resigned while the PC party was still in power, and his successor Kim Campbell became Prime Minister for several months until the election actually occured. I think the Conservatives had done this as a way of test driving Campbell to see if she could engage Canadians who had come to dispise Mulroney. She failed miserably and the Conservative received a crushing defeat. I think the Liberals are playing the same game. Once again, if their new leader guides Canada through the next year and a half or so successfully, proves himself a valuable and effective leader, then it is entirely likely the Liberals could return to power.
But all of this rests on the decision of the Governor General. In our political system, she is charged with ensuring the continued operation of the government. If the no confidence vote occurs, she can either allow the coalition to run, or she can order an election. If she goes with the election, it is likely the current negative backlash could blow up in the faces of the coaltion and we could see a Conservative majority. If, however, she accepts the coaltion, they will get their chance. And then it is theirs to blow. However, there is also the option that the Prime Minister will request to prorogue parliament (effectively it would cause parliament to cease until a specified time). No parliament session, no vote. This would allow the governemnt to put together a budget that could possibly tame the coaltion. After all, if the coalition’s stand is that the government must fall because of their delay in addressing the economy, how can the coalition argue this if they are presented with a budget that addresses the issue. Not to mention that if the budget contains lots of gimmes for the average Canadian, it will leave much bitterness towards the coaltion if they tumble the government then.
There are so many twists and turns here. I think that is why so many people are anxious, because there is no clear path. I’m sure even the Governor General is scratching her head, because there is no clear path for her either. She has options, and none of them are proven to truly be better or more appropriate than the other. At this point, I don’t think she will prorogue parliament. I think that would be seen as a favouritist act and an abuse of the government’s power. Instead, I think she will let the vote come to be. And, given the resentment Canadians showed during the last vote, I think she will give the coalition their shot. After all, our system exists to support this. We vote, and once we have voted, our choice of who controls parliament is gone until the next vote. It is in the House of Commons that who is leader is decided. If the House has lost confidence in the current leader, then it is the right of the House to defeat that leader. And, in tandem with that, if the House as a majority has confidence in a new leader, they have every legal and constituional right to put forward that leader.
Whatever happens, this is an interesting time in Canadian politics. I am only sorry that we do not have our own Obama waiting to take the reigns (you can see my lament about that in this previous post). I can only truly hope that whoever remains in power does so truly looking out for the interests of the average Canadian, and is not just maneouvering for the sake of their political party.